Gold Market Overview

Gold futures (MCX June 2025 contract) are currently trading in a consolidation phase after experiencing volatility in recent sessions. The precious metal has shown signs of weakness after testing higher levels, with current price action reflecting market indecision amid key technical levels.

Gold Technical Landscape

The technical picture reveals gold trading at ₹96,307, having recently pulled back from higher levels. The recent price action has formed a bearish engulfing pattern on the 15-minute timeframe, suggesting short-term selling pressure.

Key Technical Indicators:

Bollinger Bands: Price has retreated from the upper band and is now hovering near the middle band, indicating decreasing volatility.

Moving Averages: Currently above the EMA 8 (₹96,200) below EMA 21 (₹96,500), signaling mixed short-term sentiment.

RSI (14): Currently at 44.14, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions, but showing declining momentum.

MACD: Trading below the signal line with histogram showing negative values, suggesting bearish momentum is building.

Pivot Points: Previous day's pivot levels show immediate resistance at ₹96,765 and support at ₹95,833.

Gold Intraday Trading Strategy

Bullish Scenario: BUY Setup

Entry Point: Above ₹96,500 (break of immediate resistance). Target 1: ₹96,850. Target 2: ₹97,100 (coinciding with previous day's pivot resistance). Stop Loss: ₹96,000. Trigger Conditions: Price moving above EMA 8, RSI crossing above 50, and MACD showing positive divergence.

Bearish Scenario: SELL Setup

Entry Point: Below ₹96,100 (break of immediate support). Target 1: ₹95,900. Target 2: ₹95,700 (near previous day's lower support level). Stop Loss: ₹96,300. Trigger Conditions: Price sustaining below EMA 21, RSI failing to cross 50, and MACD continuing its downward trajectory.

Market Outlook

Gold appears to be in a consolidation phase with slightly bearish undertones in the immediate term. The precious metal is likely to find strong support around the ₹95,800-95,900 zone, which could attract value buyers. However, sustained trading below this zone could trigger further selling pressure.

For upside momentum to establish, gold needs to convincingly break above the ₹96,500 level, which coincides with the EMA 21. Traders should watch for global cues, particularly US dollar movements and geopolitical developments, which could influence price action during the day.

Risk Factors

Upcoming economic data releases, unexpected central bank commentary, significant dollar index fluctuations, changes in global risk sentiment especially rupee effect due to border tensions.

Note from LKP Securities: All technical levels are based on the MCX Gold June 2025 contract as of May 9, 2025. Traders are advised to use appropriate risk management strategies.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)