Irregular Monsoon Patterns Pose Risks to Agriculture

The recent report by ICICI bank highlights a concerning trend of irregular rainfall distribution across India, which could lead to significant crop damage and subsequent price hikes. States like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Gujarat have seen rainfall well above the long period average (LPA), while others such as Bihar, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh face deficits.

Impact on Crop Production and Prices

"The divergence in rainfall distribution implies a near-term supply-shock in prices of key crops that are produced in affected areas, due to crop damage," the report stated. Despite the challenges, kharif sowing has shown encouraging growth, with 70.8 million hectares sown against a target of 109.7 million hectares.

Overall Rainfall and Future Concerns

As of July 21, India’s overall rainfall is measured at 374 mm, marking a 6 percent increase over the long-term average. However, the report warns that uneven rainfall may negatively impact crop production in low rainfall areas, potentially causing supply crunch driven price hikes in the near future.