India-US Trade Deal: A Timeline of Key Developments

In February, US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced plans for a trade deal by fall. However, by April 2025, Trump introduced reciprocal tariffs affecting India among others. A 90-day suspension was granted, now extended to August 1, as negotiations continue.

1) Potential Tariff Reduction Below 20%
The US is negotiating to lower proposed tariffs on India to under 20%, offering a competitive edge over regional counterparts.

2) Upcoming India-US Negotiations
A delegation from India's commerce ministry is set to discuss both an interim and the first part of the bilateral trade agreement in Washington.

3) Trump's Tariff Letters and India's Exception
While over 20 countries have received tariff letters, India awaits a potential trade deal announcement instead.

4) Trump's Optimism on Deal Closure
Trump hinted at nearing a trade agreement with India, amidst successful deals with other nations.

5) India's Stance on Deadlines
India emphasizes national interest over deadlines, ready to deal when terms are mutually beneficial.

6) India's Trade Deal Challenges
Issues include agricultural and dairy product concessions, GM food crop bans, and unresolved duties on steel, aluminium, and auto.

7) India's Red Lines in Negotiations
India has set clear boundaries, especially in agriculture and dairy, awaiting US response.

8) Trump's BRICS Tariff Threat
An additional 10% tariff on BRICS nations opposing US policies adds uncertainty.

9) Interim Trade Deal Likely
Any imminent deal is expected to be interim, sidestepping contentious agricultural and dairy issues.

10) WTO Disputes Between India and US
Beyond tariffs, disputes include India's dairy certification requirements and retaliatory measures on steel and aluminium.