Revised Inflation Forecasts

The European Central Bank's latest Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) has adjusted the headline inflation forecast for 2025 and 2026 downwards, from 2.2% and 2% to 2% and 1.8%, respectively. The expectation for 2027 remains steady at 2%.

Core Inflation and GDP Growth

Core inflation estimates, excluding energy and food, saw a slight decrease by 0.1 percentage point for both 2026 and 2027, now at 2%. Real GDP growth is anticipated to be 1.1% in 2025 and 2026, with a slight increase to 1.4% in 2027.

Unemployment Rate Stability

The unemployment rate projections show minimal change, with 6.3% expected in 2025 and 2026, and a minor dip to 6.2% in 2027.