Global Economic Outlook Brightens as IMF Revises Growth Forecasts

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has updated its global growth forecast for 2025, raising it to 3% from the previous 2.8%. This adjustment reflects a more optimistic view of the world's economic recovery. Additionally, the projection for next year has been revised upwards to 3.1% from 3%, following a global growth rate of 3.3% in 2024.

Inflation and Tariff Impacts on Global Economy

Global headline inflation is anticipated to decrease to 4.2% in 2025 and further to 3.6% in 2026, influenced by expected higher tariffs. The IMF notes, "The US effective tariff rate underlying the projections is 17.3 percent, compared with 24.4 percent in the April reference forecast." This suggests a potential easing of trade tensions.

Country-Specific Growth Adjustments

The United States is expected to see a 1.9% growth this year, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from earlier estimates. China's economy is forecasted to expand by 4.8%, up by 0.8 percentage points, while the Eurozone's growth is adjusted to 1%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points.

Illustrative Scenario: The IMF highlights that global growth in 2025 could be approximately 0.2 percentage points lower if the maximum tariff rates announced earlier were fully implemented.