Asian Exports to the U.S. Face Sharp Decline

Trade analysts suggest that major Asian countries’ exports to the United States could rapidly decrease from the second half of this year. This diagnosis stems from the expectation that the "pre-order" effect, which drove Asian exports in the first half of the year, will no longer function as the Donald Trump administration finalized its mutual tariff imposition policy in April.

Signs of Slowdown Across the U.S.

According to Nikkei Asia on Aug. 4, signs indicating a slowdown in imports are being detected across the United States. Earlier this year, in preparation for President Trump’s indiscriminate tariff policies, Asian manufacturers shipped everything from semiconductors to toys to the United States, even causing bottlenecks at U.S. logistics sites. However, recent changes in this atmosphere have been detected.

Jimmy Ting, chairman of Greatworld Logistics, a San Francisco-based logistics company, said, “Major importers tried to secure inventory before tariffs were imposed, but the atmosphere has changed recently,” adding, “There was a lot of backlog in May and June, but most of it has been resolved recently.”

Impact on Asian Exports

Experts believe this trend could seriously impact Asian exports. Alex Holmes, Asia-Pacific director at the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), said, “The pre-order effect could completely disappear within a few months,” and added, “When the volume accumulated before the tariff imposition (in the U.S.) is released, it will have a very negative impact on Asian exports in the second half of the year.”

He emphasized, “Given that signs of recession are being detected in the U.S., demand (in the U.S.) could decrease very rapidly at some point,” and “It wouldn’t be surprising at all if exports from some Asian countries decrease by 20-30% by early next year.”

Expert Recommendations

Nomura Securities also presented an analysis that Asian exports will show a double-digit decline in the second half of this year. This judgment is based on the combined effects of demand slowdown and tariff increases.

Experts argue that policymakers in major Asian countries should stimulate domestic demand to reduce the shock of a sharp export decline. Nikkei Asia warned, “If policymakers do not take preemptive aggressive measures, companies could lose their core growth base.”