Major Investment Banks Revise Korea's Growth Forecasts Upwards

In a significant shift, leading overseas investment banks have adjusted their economic growth forecasts for Korea upwards, citing robust exports and manufacturing growth as key drivers. JP Morgan, previously holding the most conservative estimate, has incrementally raised its forecast from 0.5% to 0.7% within a month.

Behind the Numbers: Exports and Fiscal Measures

"The second quarter GDP growth rate slightly exceeded market expectations," noted JP Morgan in its recent report. The bank highlighted the dual impact of strong export performance and anticipated fiscal stimulus measures as buffers against potential third-quarter adjustments.

A Collective Optimism Among Banks

Goldman Sachs and Citibank have also revised their forecasts upwards, contributing to an average growth expectation of 1.0% among eight major IBs. This collective optimism reflects confidence in Korea's economic resilience and policy effectiveness.

Looking Ahead: Tariff Negotiations and Growth Potential

The Bank of Korea's upcoming revised economic outlook may further adjust growth expectations, especially considering the potential impact of ongoing Korea-U.S. tariff negotiations. With the second supplementary budget's effect, a growth rate of 0.9% is within reach, though achieving 1% remains uncertain due to first-quarter challenges.