Vietnam's GDP Growth Exceeds Expectations

According to UOB's Global Economics & Market Research Unit, Vietnam's real GDP experienced a remarkable 7.96% year-on-year growth in the second quarter of 2025, surpassing forecasts and marking the highest rate since 2011.

Export Orders Fuel Economic Expansion

The surge was significantly driven by businesses accelerating export orders during a 90-day window of suspended reciprocal tariffs by the US, leading to a 14.4% increase in export turnover to US$219 billion.

Challenges in the Manufacturing Sector

Despite the growth, Vietnam's Purchasing Managers' Index indicates a struggling manufacturing sector, with new orders declining at the sharpest pace since September 2021.

Revised Export and GDP Forecasts

UOB has adjusted its forecasts, now expecting a 5% increase in exports to the US and an overall GDP growth of 6.9% in 2025, up from the initial 6.0% projection.

Monetary Policy Outlook

With the economy's positive performance, UOB anticipates the State Bank of Vietnam will maintain the current refinancing rate at 4.5%, easing pressure for further policy loosening.