US Crude Oil Production to Reach Historic High

According to the Energy Information Administration's July Short-Term Energy Outlook, US crude oil production is projected to hit an unprecedented peak of 13.41 million barrels per day in 2025.

Forecasted Slight Decline in 2026

The report further anticipates a modest decrease to 13.28 million barrels per day in 2026, signaling the first annual reduction since 2021. This adjustment comes amidst a complex global energy landscape.

Global Factors Influencing Production Trends

Despite rising oil prices fueled by geopolitical tensions in mid-2025, the EIA highlights that increasing global inventories and a slowdown in US drilling activities are expected to temper production growth. The Permian Basin continues to lead the charge in output, with significant contributions also coming from Brazil, Canada, and Guyana.